The Tour kicks off tomorrow in Florence, which is in Italy last I checked, and doesn’t get to France until Stage 4. That’s nothing shocking since the Tour usually starts outside France. What IS shocking is that, due to potential conflict with the impending Olympics, this year’s TdF will not end on the Champs Elysees, but rather in the streets of Nice, in the south of the country.
Tadej Pogačar will win the race. He will do that because he’s the strongest cyclist in the world, and because he’s bringing a team that is better than all the other teams. He will win, because his main rival, Jonas Vingegaard could not possibly be back in race winning form after breaking most of his body in a crash at the Tour of the Basque Country a short time back. Vingegaard’s Visma-Lease-a-Bike squad is also weakened by the absence of primary climbing lieutenant Sepp Kuss.
Primož Roglič will also not with the race, because he moved to Bora-Hansgrohe in the hope of getting a team dedicated to his efforts rather than dueling for leadership with Vingegaard at V-L-a-B. But Bora’s team is decidely meh, so it’s not clear what he’s accomplished.
Remco Evenepoel won’t win it either, because he has a hard time putting big efforts in day-after-day, week-after-week. He is usually talked about as a contender, but I think that’s because there just aren’t that many of them.
So when Tadej Pogačar wins in Nice, it will be the first time someone has won the Giro and Tour in the same season since Marco Pantani did it in 1998. Miguel Indurain did it twice in the early ’90s. Both those riders were almost certainly doped to the gills to do it. Draw what conclusions you will.
If someone out there would like to dispute my admittedly half-baked analysis of the upcoming race, I warmly invite them to do so in the comments below. I think the situation, as I’ve outlined it, represents the conventional moment here on the eve of the event. Of course, crashes, illness or other unforeseen occurrences might subvert Pogačar’s appointment with destiny, but frankly, I doubt it.
This week’s TCI Friday instead simply wonders whether you’ll be watching or not. Did you watch the Netflix series Tour de France: Unchained, and get curious again? Or did you give up on pro racing after the Lancepocalypse and have no interest in it anymore, perhaps even happy to be able to devote that time to your passion for stamp collecting instead? Or, or, did you not ever care and still don’t?
I will watch, daily highlight style. I was all in from the Lemond years through the Armstrong era. I quit watching for many years after the Lance fallout, but the rise of the women’s world tour has drawn me back into watching road cycling again.
Definitely Watching. Vive Le Tour!