It’s less than two weeks from the Grand Departe in Lille for the start of the Tour de France 2025 on July 5th, and so here’s a brief preview to orient you, in case you haven’t been paying attention to pro racing. This year the race is being held entirely within France. It’s the 112th edition of the men’s race, and it will consist of 7 flat stages, 6 hilly stages, 6 mountain stages with 5 summit finishes, and 2 individual time trials.
General Classification – Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel, last year’s podium, are all back again, and if you just bet on these three to finish in the same places this go around, that’d be pretty safe. Pogačar has shown, as usual, that he’s the strongest in the world by a long stretch, though it’s possible that Vingegaard was keeping his powder dry at the recent Criterium du Dauphine, letting Pogačar burn matches he might need later. That’s a stretch though. Pogačar is the clear favorite, and only a crash or some other physical problem stands in the Slovenian’s way to adding a fourth Tour and sixth Grand Tour to his astounding palmares.
Who are the wild cards? Primož Roglič disappointed at the Giro. If he’s been able to get his health sorted out, he could challenge, but might ride for his teammate Florian Lipowitz, who has emerged as strong up-and-commer. Ben O’Connor has shown he might have the stuff to ride hard for three weeks. Richard Carapaz is strong enough to be in the mix, but already has the Giro in his legs, AND usually lacks the tactical nous to win a race like this.
Green jersey – The Green Jersey, or points jersey, traditionally targeted by sprinters, has been skewed a little for this edition. As usual, flat stage victories earn the most points, but the points available for other, undulating stages, have been tweaked a little higher, probably to bring riders like Matthieu Van Der Poel and Wout van Aert into the game with the sprinters like Jonathan Milan, Jasper Philipsen and Tim Merlier.
Last year, Biniam Girmay finished in Green, but it’s hard to say what form he’s in right now. I’d say this competition is wide open, and I’d expect a lot of these guys to be in swapping places in the standings right to the end.
Polka Dots – There are so many great climbers in the peloton these days that picking a polka dot jersey winner is nigh impossible, though Richard Carapaz, who is always combative on steep terrain is certainly going to be there or thereabouts. I could also see Adam Yates, Pogačar’s main climbing domestique winning it by accident. For balance, I’ll throw Enric Mas in there too, but truly there are an array of fast, skinny guys who will be targeting the maillot à pois rouges.
White Jersey – Here’s a hot take for you on the White Jersey for best young rider. This is an award for the leading GC rider under 26, as long as that rider is in their first three professional seasons. 26 is too old. When you see Isaac del Toro come second at the Giro at 21, it’s time to redefine what young rider means. Evenpoel took it last year and finished third overall. It’s dumb. We all know who Remco Evenepoel is. I’d like to see the age reduced to 23. I’m not even going to guess at who could win it this year. The talent in the peloton is getting younger and younger.
Anyway, I hope this little preview gives you a leg up on enjoying this year’s race. I expect the media will really focus on the Pogačar – Vingegaard rivalry, which yes, will be interesting, but I think Pogačar is much stronger and will put the whole thing to bed pretty early, and that’ll make following the Green jersey and even the Polka Dots much more fun.