Beyond a Reasonable Doubt

Maybe you just watched Tadej Pogačar win the Giro d’Italia, though ‘win’ hardly describes what he did over 21 racing stages. Pogačar won 6 stages, including a time trial and a second-place finish in another time trial as well as a third place in the opening stage. His final margin over second place was just shy of 10 minutes. For three weeks, he dropped his rivals at will, in both steep and moderate terrain, and even in attack, he looked calm, as though he wasn’t working very hard at all.

I have no idea whether Tadej Pogačar is doping or not, and in some ways that’s beside the point anyway, because cycling’s past continues to cast a long shadow over the present, and what the young Slovenian just did in Italy doesn’t look right. He is so much better than everyone that it defies explanation. 

Unfortunately, what pro cycling has taught us over the decades is that performances like this aren’t real. Lance Armstrong’s great legacy, in fact the legacy of that whole generation of riders, is to plant a large and fertile seed of doubt in our minds when we see incredible performances on the bike.

Now, Tadej Pogačar, unlike Armstrong, is universally popular. He’s a nice kid. He’s gracious both in victory and in the rare defeat. He smiles a lot. He’s the last rider you want to think is cheating.

But this Giro performance…on one stage he crashed near the end and got up and won the race…it just doesn’t look right. And what’s curious to me is that no one is really talking about doping. The commentators, the media, the teams, they’re all invested in turning the page on the doping era, but we are seeing crazy things.

To be fair, it’s not just Pogačar. Mathieu van der Poel won Paris-Roubaix in a record time. He attacked the field from way out and rode easily to victory. He looked fresh at the finish. It’s not supposed to look that way.

OK. The bikes are better. The training methods are better. But are they the 10% better that blood doping gave the previous generation? Does that make sense?

And as a commentator myself, albeit a very minor voice, I hate to be the one to bring it up. I don’t want to be right about this. I’m not even sure I know what it means if I am. Like maybe I gave up my right of protest when I went back to watching pro racing in the first place. There is certainly some measure of suspension of disbelief that goes into it. 

In the US justice system, there is the idea that guilt might be established “beyond a reasonable doubt.” Watching Pogačar race is thrilling. He does amazing things at will. Unfortunately, I’m afraid pro cycling might be slipping back into a place where someone needs to properly explain what we’re seeing, if only to dispel that reasonable doubt.

I am not comfortable, based on watching a race on television, stating definitively that one rider or another is cheating, but cycling shouldn’t be so blase about incredible performances. If we are expected to properly turn the page and to make new, emotional connections to the sport, then someone needs to explain what we’re seeing.

Join the conversation
  1. TCDiver says

    I can’t help but agree with your assessment of Tadej’s performance. The only place I might offer him some grace is the rash of crashes that occurred during the spring classics. Some of Pogacar’s closest rivals were injured, some just getting back on the bike now. This isn’t to say those injured riders would have participated in the Giro or fared any better, but I do think we should point out that it wasn’t the full slate of competitors. On the other hand, he rides for a team who’s main sponsor is a country with a different moral/ethical code than we hold here in the West, and that might lead to a willingness or openness to gain advantage where ever possible. I hope I am wrong. I want to be wrong. But the sheer dominance and how he outclassed the entire field does not feel clean.

  2. Wyatt says

    Oh boy. I get this post and the skepticism. I loved Lance until it fell apart. I love Tadej today so I’m emotionally invested in this not being true. But, I get it.

    That said, this Giro aside, Tadej has shown himself to be a swashbuckling super talent but also flawed and capable of bad days. So much so that he did NOT win the last couple tours when facing the other best cyclists in the world.

    I don’t think this Giro is reason enough to suspend disbelief. Yes it was an utterly dominant display, but, the field was not strong. Geraint Thomas (whom I also admire and appreciate) was second best going into it and he is well past his prime at 38. He, Denis Martinez, and the rest of the top 5(Tadej aside) are not among the top 5 favorites going into the Tour.

    I don’t know if they are doping or not. I would not be surprised to learn they are. But, if so, it’s not just a couple of them. They, along with olympians, are the most stringently tested athletes in the world—if we are going to reduce fan-ship of cycling stars because of doping potential/history then we probably should not allow ourselves to enjoy any major world sport ever again…..Football, American Football, Baseball, Basketball etc are all far less thoroughly tested or enforced and no one really cares.

    I will continue to enjoy this generation of pros and their other worldly feats until and unless cheating is clearly proved. Awe inspiring talent and innocent until proven guilty for me. Let’s enjoy these kids. Yeowww.

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